For Immediate Release
‘s-HERTOGENBOSCH, Netherlands — September 25, 2024 — WESP, a frontrunner in automotive data analysis, today announced the release of its report, “Electrification European passenger car fleet: limited impact on revenue, but significant margin consequences”. This extensive study provides an in-depth analysis of how the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) will reshape the European automotive aftermarket over the next decade, forecasting until 2035.
Unprecedented Insights into the Future of Automotive Aftermarket
The report, a collaboration between WESP Automotive Business Intelligence and Trend-Rx, combines WESP’s vast aftermarket database—containing data from over 57 million standardised workshop invoices since 2012—with Trend-Rx’s projections and analysis. This unique approach offers unparalleled insights into the long-term effects of vehicle electrification on the European aftermarket.
Key Findings from the Report
- Fleet Growth and Composition: By 2035, Europe’s passenger car fleet is projected to grow to 308 million vehicles, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounting for nearly 76 million units.
- Aftermarket Revenue: Despite the common assumption that “fewer moving parts” in EVs would significantly reduce aftermarket revenue, the European retail aftermarket is expected to grow by €154 million by 2035.
- Impact on Growth and Margins: While BEVs will slow revenue growth by 3.8%, the most substantial impact will be on profit margins, with a forecasted 10% decrease from current levels (from 38.4% to 34.5%). Revenue slowdown will also be offset by a larger and older European passenger car fleet.
- Product Mix Shift: The transition to EVs will dramatically alter the aftermarket product mix, presenting both challenges and opportunities for industry players.
- Market Structure: The shift is expected to significantly impact the retail aftermarket network, with medium-sized companies likely to face the greatest challenges in adapting to the new landscape.
All of these findings are detailed in the eighty-eight-page report using quantified data, visuals, and detailed descriptions of market dynamics.
Implications for the Industry
Bas Wintjes, director of WESP Automotive Business Intelligence, stated, “With this comprehensive study, we aim to remove the uncertainty about the revenue impact from the EV transition. It is time to have a fact-based discussion on revenue expectations. Based on the analysis of millions of workshop invoices, we can indicate the parts turnover in the different product groups. We observe big shifts in products, of course, but this research will boost confidence for the industry.”
The report offers actionable recommendations for aftermarket players, emphasizing the need for balanced investment in both traditional and EV-focused product lines and skills.
Arno Onink, director of Trend-Rx adds, “By analysing the full European passenger car fleet, we were able to provide a much broader and more in-depth revenue and margin analysis for the aftersales market. The market will see a change in market dynamics, however, and will also still offer plenty of opportunities for proactive market participants.”
Availability and Further Information
The full report, “Electrification and the European Passenger Car Retail Aftermarket: A 2035 Forecast,” is available for purchase at our product page. It includes detailed analyses of:
- Current European passenger car fleet composition and trends
- Projected 2035 fleet size and composition
- Current European retail aftermarket size
- In-depth analysis of electrification’s impact on aftermarket revenue and margins per product group
- Forecasted 2035 retail aftermarket scenario
- Strategic recommendations for industry players
For more information about the report, to request a preview, or to schedule a meeting, please contact our Head of Data Solutions, Jeroen Koopman, at jeroen.koopman@mywesp.com.
Media Contact: Stijn de Vries, Marketing Manager, at stijn.devries@mywesp.com.
About WESP Automotive Business Intelligence
WESP is a provider of data-driven services for the automotive industry, including benchmark dashboards, fact-based consulting, and data for the passenger car market. WESP developed unique business intelligence tools to collect, clean, standardize, and enrich retail market data for the aftermarket. Our software applications transform heterogeneous retail data into harmonized market information conform to industry standards to provide business insights, benchmarks, and data-driven decision-making.
About Trend-Rx
Trend-Rx is a provider of market analysis and market forecasts for the insurance and automotive industry, including trend, competitive, and distribution analysis, and helps companies visualise future markets both quantitatively and qualitatively to provide a reliable foundation for strategic decisions.
